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Key DOW Levels for 4/3
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UP
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Above 12,750
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DN
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None
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Holding..
Dow pulls back from 12,700, closes lower by 45 points.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow closed the day at the highs of the
session, but remains at the top of the large trading range, which means the
index has yet to get a convincing breakout from this range. Watch 12,700 for
clear signs of strength..."
The Dow opened the day
with early strength this morning and pushed up to 12,700 before falling to
the lows of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index closed the
day about 100 points off the 12,700 level with a loss of 45 points, but
remains near overall highs after yesterday's big rally.
The Daily and 60 Minute
Charts show the Dow continues to hold at the top of the large trading range
at 12,600. As we mentioned before, this zone has been tested many times over
the last three months, with the 12,800 level being the main fulcrum. Every
time the Dow has managed to rally to these levels it has been met with heavy
selling pressure. While yesterday's rally was a huge move, the Dow remains
within the overall range and below 12,800, which is not a bullish case at
this point.
We will need the Dow to
clearly break through 12,800 if any meaningful strength is to be seen. Watch
12,700 for early bullish momentum. Otherwise, further sideways movement may
be seen at highs above 12,500 before a break or reversal is seen.
Short Term Dow
The Dow closed the day
at 12,600, as this seems to be the clear intraday fulcrum in the 5 Minute
Chart. Watch this zone for early directional bias tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we
are still out of the market and will watch 12,750 up; using 25 point stops.
We will remain on the sideline for Shorts.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P
each pulled back modestly after yesterday's rally. Look for signs of a
potential continuation pattern tomorrow.
Summary
The Dow closed the day
near the overall highs of yesterday's rally, which indicates that bullish
momentum remains. However, if the Dow cannot break through 12,800, another
sharp drop will be seen back to the 11,800 level.
Thanks for listening,
and Good luck in your trading!
Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com
with assistance
from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com
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Dow 15 Minute Chart
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Dow 60 Minute Chart
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Dow Daily Chart
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Dow Weekly Chart
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